This report seeks to explore options around integrating transition risk into mainstream stress-test scenarios used by financial supervisory authorities.

Key Findings


At macro level, transition risks are not material enough in the short-term to impact the existing macroeconomic parameters, nor the existing asset class assumptions


At sectoral level in turn, transition risk scenarios become relevant, but the sectoral detail of these scenarios is too granular and expansive for the existing stress-testing framework;


Furthermore, in order to integrate climate factors into stress testing, supervisors face a number of obstacles notably the mismatch of the time horizon of risk models (3 years) on the one hand, and the speed and time frame of climate risks materialization, on the other hand

The report analyses options for integration into macroeconomic, asset-class and sector risk factors. It focuses in particular around the implications of considering the shock described in the ‘too late, too sudden’ paper of the ESRB advisory scientific board (2016).