Climate scenarios are hypothetical future trajectories of the Earth’s climate, based on various assumptions about factors like greenhouse gas emissions, socioeconomic development, and policy choices. These scenarios are essential tools for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders to explore and understand the range of possible outcomes for our planet’s climate. They help us assess the potential impacts of different choices and decisions regarding emissions reductions, energy transitions, and adaptation strategies.
We represent the set of transition scenarios by a set of climate-adjusted economic parameters with geographical differentiation to account for institutional and regulatory heterogeneity across economic systems. This allows to capture the different capabilities and responsibilities of individual countries in climate change mitigation. In the 1in1000 Stress Test, we use climate scenarios primarily to extend the company specific production pathways, which we have available until 2027, until a desired time horizon (mostly 2050) for a business-as-usual scenario, in which no new climate policies are engaged, and a target scenario, in which more ambitious policies lead to a limitation of global temperature rise below 2°C.
The total collection of climate-adjusted economic parameters we use includes factors like mentioned decarbonization paths, projected unit costs and technology prices, and carbon tax pathways. These parameters again represent different scenarios related to climate policies, shifts in demand, and technological changes in energy and industry systems. These scenario parameters are external and capture various socio-economic and climatological assumptions from different climate-economic models.
Our approach for the 1in1000 TRISK Model is scenario-agnostic and can be applied across a range of scenarios, which we are mentioning in Section 3. The level of granularity that can be adopted in a our model will largely depend on the granularity of the scenario data on which the stress scenario can be calibrated. In Section 4 we cover the newest addition in 1in1000 Model Suite, the Steel sector, and its underlying scenario processing methodology.
This report is part of the LIFE21-GIC-DE-Stress project and was authored by the 1in1000 initiative.
Find out more at life-stress.eu/news.
Disclaimer:
Co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or CINEA. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
